After the Rupture was presented by UBC Connects at Robson Square on March 19, 2026 in the UBC Robson Square Theatre. This public forum was co-sponsored by the Peter A. Allard School of Law, UBC Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Stewardship, and UBC Faculty of Arts.
Moderator Robin Gill and panellists Ljiljana Biukovic (Allard School of Law), Harry Nelson (Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Stewardship), Stewart Prest (Department of Political Science), and Torsten Jaccard (Vancouver School of Economics) explored the myriad ways Canada might find—or lose—its footing in a world where the old rules of international trade are rapidly disappearing.
You can listen to the conversation in its entirety on Spotify! Listen below or click here to listen to this event on the Spotify app.
The End of the Old Rules
The evening began with a “legal postmortem” of the global trade system and its various points of rupture over the last 30 years. Dr. Ljiljana Biukovic traced the current decline back to structural factors within the 1995 WTO agreement that effectively paralyzed the organization’s ability to manage coming crises. Driven, in part, by a 166-member consensus mandate and the crippling of the adjudication system by U.S. veto powers, the WTO was unable to navigate the inclusion of non-market actors in the early 2000s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic. These shocks fundamentally transformed the global economy while WTO trade rules remained largely static and it was unable to meet the demands of a changing geopolitical landscape.
“[It’s] a spaghetti bowl of different trade rules, origin[s], customs, duties … The system has been broken because the main principle has been eroded.”
– Dr. Ljiljana Biukovic
For decades, Canada’s geopolitical position relied on what was a flawed but predictable WTO framework. However, as the structural flaws have led increasingly to a more chaotic “spaghetti bowl” of different rules, there appears to be less and less of a unified system to rely on. This marks a transition from a world of collective rules to one of fragmented, power-based negotiations, and what Dr. Prest called the “thickening” of borders as the new international norm.
While the shift in the rules-based order could open up new opportunities for Canada—for instance seeking out deeper relationships with other nations and regions—the sheer scale of Canada’s economic reliance on the U.S. makes such a departure from the old ways very difficult.
The reality of Canada’s dependence on US trade was made abundantly clear by Dr. Torsten Jaccard, who grounded the conversations in a sobering statistic: 30 cents of every dollar earned in Canada is tied directly to U.S. exports. Such a lopsided relationship, only complicated further by the lack of U.S. dependence on Canada, means that Canada almost inevitably enters negotiations as the “weaker party.”
“For every dollar earned in Canada, roughly 30% comes from selling goods to United States. This is an incredible dependency.”
– Dr. Torsten Jaccard
This vulnerability is already a daily reality in industries like forestry, which Dr. Harry Nelson described as a “canary in the coal mine” for Canada’s current trade challenges. Having navigated decades of trade friction and institutionalized protectionism by the U.S., the forestry sector serves as a warning for other critical region-sectors in Canada—for instance, Ontario’s auto and steel industries and Alberta’s energy sector, which make up 40% of Canada’s export value to the U.S. and now face existential questions in a shifting marketplace increasingly defined by unilateralism.
“Forestry [has] been the canary in the coal mine … as the rest of Canada looks around and [wonders] what the heck is happening? It’s been going on for a long time in forestry.”
– Dr. Harry Nelson
Strategies for an Unpredictable Partner
In this context of unequal standing in negotiations, Dr. Stewart Prest reflected also on an increasingly fraught relationship with an American administration that acts with the unpredictability of a “Roomba”—bouncing from one protectionist strategem to another without a clear global roadmap or endgame. The consensus was that Canada’s best defense may be strategic flexibility—normalizing relations with other global powers to ensure we are never without options and seeking mini-deals that provide stability when a grand bargain is out of reach.
The panel also reflected on the value of focusing on what Canada can control within its own borders. Rather than simply reacting to U.S. volatility, Canada can build internal resilience. By enriching its own assets, like top-tier education and the recruitment of global talent, and strengthening trade relations between provinces, the country can create a more robust domestic economy that is resilient and a valued investment for other global partners.
“As long as Canada has options—so as long as there’s the possibility of pursuing some degree of diversification, finding other partners to work with on some fronts—then Canada can continue to find ways to muddle through.”
– Dr. Stewart Prest
While the tenor of the evening’s conversation focused on the uncertainties of the current global trade climate, and the very real challenges for Canada ahead, it ended with a positive note about the possibilities emergent in a more calculated strategy for Canada. While the era of easy, predictable trade may be over, Canada’s path forward appears to have plenty of opportunity through a mix of firm diplomacy abroad and a renewed attention to economic strength at home.
Speakers
Dr. Harry Nelson is an associate professor in the Faculty of Forestry at UBC. He holds a PhD in forest economics from UBC and a master’s degree in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School. In 2025, Dr. Nelson joined the 9-member Provincial Forest Advisory Council, tasked with providing recommendations to government on advancing forest stewardship, while supporting communities and workers that rely on forests.
Dr. Nelson studies the forest sector’s structural transformation in response to shifting markets, growing recognition of non-market forest values, and the increasing complexity posed by climate change. He examines natural resource and environmental policy, with a focus on forestry and the development of policy options to enhance the long-term sustainability of Canadian forests and the communities and businesses that depend on them.
Long-standing areas of his research include investigating the changing role of Indigenous peoples in land and resource management in Canada and assessing how forest-sector firms, governments and others are adapting to climate change impacts in forestry.
Dr. Ljiljana Biukovic is a professor in the Allard School of Law, where she teaches Contract Law, European Union Law, and International Trade Law. Her research interests are in the areas of international economic law and European Union integration. She acted as a co-investigator in the Major Collaborative Research Initiative research project on Coordinated Compliance of International Trade Law and Human Rights (2011-2018). Her work focused on the interaction between international trade rules and local human rights norms and practices in the context of performance of international trade agreements and cooperation among developing countries.
She also publishes regularly on topics of legal transplantation of international norms and standards by national governments, the impact of regionalism on multilateral trade negotiations, mega-regional trade and investment agreements, and the development of European Union.
Dr. Stewart Prest is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at UBC, where he researches and teaches international relations, comparative politics, and Canadian politics. His work focuses on democratic institutions, civil conflict, state–society relations, and civic literacy, with particular attention to how institutions shape effective decision-making and why underdogs sometimes prevail.
Based in Vancouver, he is a frequent commentator on local, provincial, and federal issues in local, national, and international media, with a particular focus on provincial and municipal politics. His work has been published in Maclean’s, The Walrus, The Tyee, The Conversation, and the Vancouver Sun.
He holds a PhD in Political Science from UBC and previously completed a SSHRC postdoctoral fellowship at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs; his dissertation examined largely non-violent contentious politics in Bolivia’s Chapare region.
His most recent articles on the topic of Canada-US relations include, “Trump’s America Comes for Alberta” published in the Tyee in January 2026, and “This is What American Fascism Looks Like,” published by the Walrus in February 2026.
Dr. Torsten Jaccard is an assistant professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, UBC. He previously held the title of the International Economics Postdoctoral Fellow at Dartmouth College. His research is primarily in international trade, with a focus on understanding demand for imported goods and the consumer benefits of globalization.
Originally from New Westminster, British Columbia, Dr. Jaccard received an undergraduate degree from UBC studying Chemical and Biological Engineering, then working at Navius Research, Inc., before attending the University of Toronto to complete a Masters and PhD in Economics (2022).
Event Moderator
Robin Gill
Robin Gill is a distinguished Canadian broadcast journalist and communications specialist with nearly 30 years of experience reporting on the front lines of global events. Best known for her 14-year tenure as a national correspondent and weekend anchor for Global National, Robin has been a trusted voice for millions. A proud alumna of the University of British Columbia (BA ’93) and BCIT, her career is marked by a reputation for remaining calm in high-stakes environments and providing the essential context and careful detail that turn a broadcast into a meaningful story.
Leveraging her extensive background interviewing world leaders, business icons, and community advocates, Robin now leads Robin Gill Communications. Her firm provides expert media training, public speaking coaching, and crisis communication strategies for diverse sectors including real estate, finance, mining, and non-profits. Whether she is providing communications training and strategy, moderating high-profile panels or developing long-term thought leadership plans, Robin’s mission is to help organizations and individuals navigate the modern media landscape to tell their stories with clarity, impact, and authenticity.
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